What is the current probability for "Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 88.0% and 234.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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60¢

Bid/Ask 57/63¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $72.45·OI $350.934·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0x71fa069210c5f051d0c3acf58356c3df2b14d631ae44f58961720644fed75568

7-day price848 snapshots · 15 regime

75¢60¢ current

Apr 843¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 88.0%

IY (No) 234.3%

Adj IY 234%

CRI 2

RV 1028%

VR 9.05

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	88.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	234.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	234%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1028%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	9.05	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	6.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:21:27 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x71fa069210c5f051d0c3acf58356c3df2b14d631ae44f58961720644fed75568 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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