Will there be more than 18 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will there be more than 18 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The market is pricing an extremely low probability (37¢) for exceeding 18 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, despite the Yes side offering an exceptional 271% implied yield—a significant risk premium suggesting either deep skepticism about extreme hurricane seasons or thin liquidity concerns.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low probability (37¢) for exceeding 18 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, despite the Yes side offering an exceptional 271% implied yield—a significant risk premium suggesting either deep skepticism about extreme hurricane seasons or thin liquidity concerns. With only $206 in open interest and $200 in 24-hour volume, this contract shows minimal trading activity and a tight 1¢ spread, making the high yield potentially illusory given execution challenges. The dramatic 33¢ price jump over seven days warrants caution, as it may reflect a small trade in a low-liquidity market rather than a meaningful shift in consensus expectations.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 18 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T18 yes 100