What is the current probability for "Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 25¢ (25% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 430.8% and 47.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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25¢

Bid/Ask 15/35¢·Spread 20¢·Vol $0·OI $394.275·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0xc0fc13543bdae33fafe758bfdcf4d2114f4d8fa13e3ae841117d0c9ca421ae76

7-day price701 snapshots · 3 regime

36¢25¢ current

Apr 815¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 430.8%

IY (No) 47.9%

Adj IY 431%

CRI 3

RV 727%

VR 3.47

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	430.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	47.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	431%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	727%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.47	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

20¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:16:34 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xc0fc13543bdae33fafe758bfdcf4d2114f4d8fa13e3ae841117d0c9ca421ae76 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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