What is the current probability for "Will Trump say "Epstein Island" before May 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 10 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump say "Epstein Island" before May 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 72096.9% and 199.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump say "Epstein Island" before May 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump say "Epstein Island" before May 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Trump say "Epstein Island" before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing signals with a staggering 18,453% implied yield on Yes contracts despite only 15 days to expiration, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a structural arbitrage opportunity.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 5/8¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $794.1·OI $8,106.8·Closes May 1, 2026·10d remaining

KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-EPSTI

7-day price687 snapshots · 60 regime

28¢5¢ current

Apr 84¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market exhibits extreme mispricing signals with a staggering 18,453% implied yield on Yes contracts despite only 15 days to expiration, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a structural arbitrage opportunity. The 11¢ price sits at the wide spread's lower bound with minimal 24-hour volume ($1,004) relative to open interest ($6,108), indicating thin liquidity that could amplify volatility around any Trump statement mentioning Epstein Island. The 887% realized volatility and high cliff risk (7/10) reflect the binary nature of speech-dependent resolution, though the neutral regime score and recent price stability (13¢ to 12¢ over 7 days) suggest the market hasn't priced in elevated near-term probability despite the tight 15-day window.

Resolution rules

If Epstein Island, or a plural or possessive form of Epstein Island, is stated by Donald Trump before May 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 72096.9%

IY (No) 199.7%

Adj IY 43258%

CRI 19

RV 3651%

VR 1.89

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	72096.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	199.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	43258%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3651%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.89	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.40	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 11:20:15 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-EPSTI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →