Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 83% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.2%?. This contract trades at 83¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 15¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity in its final 5 days before resolution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 15¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity in its final 5 days before resolution. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability that UK inflation will exceed 3.2% YoY in March 2026, yet the astronomical implied yields (2206.8% for Yes, 22129.7% for No) indicate the pricing is unreliable given the complete absence of liquidity. The recent 6¢ price decline from 82¢ to 76¢ over seven days suggests some late movement, but with zero open interest this market appears abandoned and unsuitable for analysis given its illiquidity and imminent expiration.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 3.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (7)▼ Full indicator table (7)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 84340% |
| CRI | 5 |
| RV | 2814% |
| VR | 0.97 |
| IAR | 0.7/h |
| Overround | 6.4% |
| LAS | 0.16 |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T3.2 yes 100