Will Vasil Terziev win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Vasil Terziev win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing November 15, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $587 open interest, making the 9-cent price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $587 open interest, making the 9-cent price potentially unreliable. The implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high at 2043%, suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty about Terziev's candidacy itself—notably, the market hasn't confirmed he'll even run. The sharp 67% price decline over seven days (from 6¢ to 3¢) combined with a wide 6-cent spread indicates thin order books and low confidence in the quoted price.
Resolution rules
If Vasil Terziev wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBULGARIAPRES-26NOV15-VTER yes 100