Will Yashar win the next Israeli legislative election?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Yashar win the next Israeli legislative election?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing October 27, 2027. Yashar faces extremely long odds at just 13% implied probability, with the Yes position offering an outsized 439% implied yield that reflects the low entry price and substantial time value through October 2027.
Analysis
Yashar faces extremely long odds at just 13% implied probability, with the Yes position offering an outsized 439% implied yield that reflects the low entry price and substantial time value through October 2027. The market shows minimal liquidity and activity ($3.61 in both volume and open interest over 24 hours) with a wide 13¢ spread, suggesting thin order books and potential difficulty executing larger positions. The 7-day price stability at 2¢ combined with a moderate cliff risk index of 7 indicates this is a speculative long-shot bet with limited conviction from traders, though the 556-day runway provides ample time for political developments to shift market sentiment.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Israeli legislative election in 2026 is Yashar, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXISRAELKNESSET-26-YAS yes 100