Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2045. At 19¢, this market prices in a relatively low probability for Zhao Leji's ascension to CCP leadership over the next 18+ years, though the 35.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests some traders see value in the current pricing despite the long timeframe.
Analysis
At 19¢, this market prices in a relatively low probability for Zhao Leji's ascension to CCP leadership over the next 18+ years, though the 35.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests some traders see value in the current pricing despite the long timeframe. The extremely thin liquidity ($836 open interest, $40 daily volume) and wide 6¢ spread indicate this is a niche market with limited price discovery, making the quoted probability potentially unreliable. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score suggest the market lacks conviction, though the 7-point Cliff Risk Index warrants caution given the binary nature of political succession events.
Resolution rules
If Zhao Leji is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-ZLEJ yes 100