3rd largest company end of May
Leader sits at 95% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Apple
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Alphabet
Spread
91pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$13K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
3rd largest company end of May
3rd largest company end of May?: Alphabet
0xd87f2f…991e
3rd largest company end of May?: Apple
0x2416ec…aef5
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Apple will be the third-largest company by market capitalization at the end of May 2026. Currently trading at 95%, this reflects strong confidence in Apple maintaining its position ahead of competitors like Alphabet. The high probability is driven by Apple's substantial market capitalization and historical stability in rankings. Movement in this market would primarily depend on significant market-cap changes among the top companies—either Apple declining substantially or competitors like Alphabet gaining ground rapidly. Major catalysts include earnings announcements, macroeconomic shifts affecting tech valuations, or significant corporate developments. The May 31, 2026 close will definitively resolve the market based on official market-cap rankings at that date.
- ›Apple's current market cap relative to Alphabet and Microsoft as of mid-May 2026
- ›Earnings reports or guidance revisions from major tech companies before month-end
- ›Broad market movements and sector rotation affecting large-cap valuations
- ›Major acquisitions, capital allocation announcements, or regulatory developments impacting any top-5 company
- ›Volatility in tech stock prices during the final weeks of May affecting relative rankings
What moved the line
- May 22Apple↓11pp93→82¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Alphabet↑8pp6→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Alphabet↓8pp13→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Apple↑8pp86→94¢ · Polymarket
- May 25Alphabet↓6pp19→13¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.