Will average gas prices be above or below $3.90 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 10% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $4.10
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Below $3.80
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$153
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $4.10
KXAAAGASMINCA-26DEC31-4.10
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.80
KXAAAGASMINCA-26DEC31-3.80
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $4.00
KXAAAGASMINCA-26DEC31-4.00
Analysis
This market is pricing a 15% probability that average U.S. gas prices will remain below $3.90 through the end of 2026. The low probability reflects a forecast heavily weighted toward prices staying higher than this threshold over the next eight months. Current price expectations lean firmly upward, as evidenced by the 93-cent contract pricing for prices above $4.40—suggesting the market sees substantial likelihood of prices exceeding that level. Price movements would depend on crude oil supply disruptions, OPEC+ production decisions, global demand shifts, and U.S. refinery capacity. The most immediate driver will be oil futures and weekly petroleum inventory reports from the EIA, which directly influence short-term pump prices. A significant recession, energy surplus, or major geopolitical de-escalation could push prices lower toward the sub-$3.90 target, while supply constraints or demand acceleration would sustain higher levels.
- ›Global crude oil production and OPEC+ output decisions through December 2026
- ›U.S. refinery utilization rates and any unplanned maintenance outages affecting fuel supply
- ›Macroeconomic conditions affecting transportation fuel demand, particularly recession risk or industrial slowdown
- ›Historical price comparison: average U.S. gas was approximately $3.50-3.60 in early 2026, requiring a meaningful decline to reach below $3.90
- ›Weekly EIA petroleum inventory reports and crude oil futures pricing as near-term price discovery mechanisms
What moved the line
- May 6Below $4.00↓11pp14→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Below $4.10↓5pp15→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Below $4.10↑4pp9→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Below $4.00↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.