Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 84% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 65%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
65¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$50
thin orderbook
Closes
May 15, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)
0xf7a730…df37
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x8a2dcc…8f6c
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb9fb89…c330
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xbced65…8c37
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6a2f65…e251
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x482a0d…4853
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)
0x21fa91…2790
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)
0x06b344…b489
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)
0xf79bdb…d6df
What moved the line
- May 11Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)↓3pp16→13¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in china
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FClast 56% · 0d
- Shenzhen Peng City vs Beijing Guoan WinnerQingdao Hainiulast 38% · 1d
- Will Johannes Veerman win the Volvo China Openlast 5% · 2d
- Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 50.0B USDAbove 40.0B USDlast 97% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in china.
In china
Related reading
Trump China Visit Locked In at 95% Probability: Markets Expect Mid-May Summit
Donald Trump visiting China by May 15 is priced at 91¢ (+1¢) and by May 31 at 95¢ (+2¢) — extremely high conviction. This would be the most consequential US-China diplomatic engagement since Xi's reelection. Markets are pricing this as a near-certainty.
Trump China Visit May 15 Surges +13¢ — Diplomatic Breakthrough Priced
The Trump-China May 15 visit market jumped +13¢ to 72¢ today, signaling traders believe a diplomatic trip is imminent. Combined with the June 30 market at 83¢, prediction markets are pricing a near-certain Trump visit to China within 7 weeks. This has major implications for tariff de-escalation trades.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.