Will Tim Cook attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 52% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$27K
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
235 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Elon Musk attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 2
Will Jensen Huang attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 3
Will Larry Fink attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 4
Will Tim Cook attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 5
Will Sam Altman attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 6
Will Jamie Dimon attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 7
Will Howard Lutnick attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 8
Will Darren Woods attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 9
Will Steve Schwarzman attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 10
Will Marco Rubio attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Cluster 11
Will Dario Amodei attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Apple CEO Tim Cook will participate in at least some portion of Donald Trump's first China visit after the contract was issued. At 58%, the market sees it as slightly more likely than not that Cook will attend, though significant uncertainty remains. The probability is likely driven by Cook's history of diplomatic engagement with Chinese leadership, Apple's substantial operations and revenue dependence on China, and his established relationship with Trump administration officials. However, it's tempered by the unpredictability of diplomatic schedules and Cook's competing commitments as a public company CEO. The resolution will depend on Trump's actual China visit timing and whether Cook is formally invited or voluntarily attends any accompanying business delegation or official events. Key upcoming factors include announcements of the China visit date, any public statements from Apple or the administration about Cook's participation, and broader US-China trade or diplomatic developments.
- ›Apple generated approximately 20% of revenue from China in recent fiscal years, creating strong incentive for CEO attendance at high-level diplomatic visits
- ›Tim Cook has historically participated in major diplomatic and trade-related events involving China and maintained relationships with multiple administrations
- ›Trump's China visit date and specific attendee list remain unannounced, making the probability contingent on future scheduling decisions
- ›Cook's public schedule and competing Apple obligations (earnings calls, shareholder meetings, product announcements) may conflict with China visit timing
- ›Market is pricing Cook's attendance notably higher than other tech/business leaders like Elon Musk (23¢) but lower than government officials like Marco Rubio (89¢)
What moved the line
- May 9Marco Rubio↓18pp92→74¢ · Kalshi
- May 9Elon Musk↑15pp18→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 10Sam Altman↓13pp33→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 11Tim Cook↑12pp67→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 10Marco Rubio↑11pp74→85¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in china
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FClast 56% · 0d
- Shenzhen Peng City vs Beijing Guoan WinnerQingdao Hainiulast 38% · 1d
- Will Johannes Veerman win the Volvo China Openlast 5% · 2d
- Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 50.0B USDAbove 40.0B USDlast 97% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in china.
In china
Related reading
Trump China Visit Locked In at 95% Probability: Markets Expect Mid-May Summit
Donald Trump visiting China by May 15 is priced at 91¢ (+1¢) and by May 31 at 95¢ (+2¢) — extremely high conviction. This would be the most consequential US-China diplomatic engagement since Xi's reelection. Markets are pricing this as a near-certainty.
Trump China Visit May 15 Surges +13¢ — Diplomatic Breakthrough Priced
The Trump-China May 15 visit market jumped +13¢ to 72¢ today, signaling traders believe a diplomatic trip is imminent. Combined with the June 30 market at 83¢, prediction markets are pricing a near-certain Trump visit to China within 7 weeks. This has major implications for tariff de-escalation trades.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.