Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 66% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
66%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$67
5 contracts
Closes
May 18, 2028
720 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Matthew” vs “Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Matthew
Will Matthew Schultz qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Matthew Schultz
KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-MSCH
Will Matthew Williams qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Matthew Williams
KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-MWIL
Cluster 2
Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Bill Hill
KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-BHIL
Cluster 3
Will Nicholas Begich qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
Cluster 4
Will John Brendan Williams qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
What moved the line
- May 24Bill Hill↓74pp92→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Nicholas Begich↓73pp96→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Matthew Schultz↓73pp96→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Bill Hill↑55pp3→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Nicholas Begich↑45pp3→48¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- TX-19 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- Texas Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 96% · 1d
- Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winnerlast 67% · 1d
- TX-38 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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