Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 70% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
70%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7
5 contracts
Closes
May 18, 2028
665 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Matthew” vs “Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Matthew
Cluster 2
Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary?: Bill Hill
KXAKPRIMARY-26MAY19-BHIL
Cluster 3
Will John Brendan Williams qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
Cluster 4
Will Nicholas Begich qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary
Analysis
This represents the probability that Bill Hill will finish in the top four of Alaska's 2026 general election primary, qualifying him for the ranked-choice runoff. Hill's 68% probability reflects moderate confidence compared to frontrunners Matthew Schultz and Nicholas Begich (both at 94%) but ahead of John Brendan Williams (58%). The current level likely reflects Hill's campaign performance, polling position if available, and fundraising relative to other candidates. The main factors pushing his probability would be strong candidate performance in the lead-up to the election or a shift in voter preference, while weak campaign activity or consolidation around other candidates could lower it. The primary election on August 18, 2026 will definitively resolve whether Hill qualifies for the runoff by revealing actual vote totals and final ranking among all candidates.
- ›Hill ranks third in implied qualification probability behind Schultz (94¢) and Begich (94¢), suggesting frontrunners are more established
- ›A 26-percentage-point gap between Hill (68¢) and top-tier candidates indicates meaningful uncertainty about his qualification relative to clear frontrunners
- ›Hill maintains 11-percentage-point advantage over John Brendan Williams (58¢), suggesting differentiation among mid-tier candidates
- ›Alaska's top-four primary system requires Hill to accumulate enough first-choice votes to reach the runoff field, not merely win outright
- ›The August 18, 2026 primary date is the single event that will resolve this contract, with results immediately determining qualification status
What moved the line
- Jul 18Matthew Schultz↓88pp93→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Matthew Schultz↑50pp20→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Matthew Williams↑17pp20→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Nicholas Begich↓16pp95→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Matthew Schultz↑15pp5→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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