Will Anastasiia and Salsa win Britain's Got Talent

30-day trend

Analysis

Anastasiia and Salsa, a dance act, is assigned a 13% probability of winning Britain's Got Talent Season 19, based on aggregated contract prices. This reflects market participants' assessment that the act has roughly a 1-in-8 chance compared to other competitors. The probability reflects their positioning against stronger-favored acts like Sonny Green (10¢) and Rafferty Coope (13¢), suggesting the market views them as a competitive but not frontrunner act. Key factors affecting this probability include audience voting patterns, performance consistency across rounds, and relative strength of competing acts. The act's probability will likely shift significantly after live performances, when judges' feedback and audience reactions become known. Season 19's finale results will definitively resolve whether they advance and ultimately win.

• ›Anastasiia and Salsa's trading volume ($70 in 24 hours) is notably lower than leading acts like Sonny Green ($864), suggesting less market conviction around this particular prediction
• ›They are priced slightly higher (11¢ contract price) than their 13% aggregated probability, indicating some variance in market assessment across the 8 tracked contracts
• ›The tight clustering of favorites (Sonny Green 10¢, Rafferty Coope 13¢, Matty Juniosa 8¢) suggests a competitive field with no dominant frontrunner, leaving room for any mid-tier act to advance
• ›Dance and performance acts have varying historical win rates on BGT depending on judge preferences and audience demographics in a given season
• ›The probability will resolve through a series of knockout rounds before the final, meaning this metric will shift substantially as the competition progresses

What moved the line

• May 21Season 19?: Sonny Green↑16pp7→23¢ · Kalshi
• May 22Season 19?: Fabian Fox↓12pp17→5¢ · Kalshi
• May 20Season 19?: LMA↑7pp13→20¢ · Kalshi
• May 21Season 19?: Matty Juniosa↑7pp6→13¢ · Kalshi
• May 22Season 19?: Sonny Green↑6pp23→29¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Shenzhen Peng City vs Beijing Guoan WinnerQingdao Hainiulast 31% · 0d
• Brentford at Manchester Unitedlast 64% · 0d
• Brentford wins by over 2.5 goalslast 19% · 0d
• Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FClast 60% · 0d
• Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds