CA-06 Primary Winners
Leader sits at 94% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kevin Kiley
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
Richard Pan
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
8 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-06 Primary Winners
CA-06 Primary Winners: Martha Guerrero
0x73ef25…669e
CA-06 Primary Winners: Lauren Babb Tomlinson
0xfe1373…46bf
CA-06 Primary Winners: Tyler Vandenberg
0xf1ffb0…a483
CA-06 Primary Winners: Kevin Kiley
0xdec0c2…4452
CA-06 Primary Winners: Thien Ho
0xd54a7c…a4a6
CA-06 Primary Winners: Michael Stansfield
0xa347c1…6ef0
CA-06 Primary Winners: Richard Pan
0x9dbcd1…95e2
What moved the line
- May 23Richard Pan↑4pp49→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Richard Pan↓3pp52→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 21Lauren Babb Tomlinson↑3pp23→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple
Democrats hold a commanding 85¢ price for House control while the Senate remains a toss-up; Texas shows surprising weakness with anti-tariff sentiment reshaping traditional Republican strongholds.
2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢
Democratic odds to win the House fell 5¢ to 78¢ on Polymarket, while Republican odds rose 3¢ to 22¢ on Kalshi. The shift was driven by new polling showing improved Republican performance in swing districts. The generic ballot vote share is also tightening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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