CA-07 Primary Winners
Leader sits at 81% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mai Vang
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Ralph Nwobi
Spread
67pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$94
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
8 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-07 Primary Winners
CA-07 Primary Winners: Ralph Nwobi
0x3a53dd…fc11
CA-07 Primary Winners: Robert Morin
0x5c4d3c…ee71
CA-07 Primary Winners: Mai Vang
0x52a1f1…a1a5
CA-07 Primary Winners: Zachariah Wooden
0x0f9a08…40dc
CA-07 Primary Winners: Enayat Nazhat
0x0e1399…28d7
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Doris Matsui will win the California 7th Congressional District primary election. At 96%, traders are pricing in a very high likelihood of her victory, reflecting her current frontrunner status. The probability remains elevated due to her name recognition as an incumbent and established fundraising network. However, shifts could occur based on late campaign developments, unexpected endorsement changes, or voter turnout patterns that favor challengers. The primary election result itself will resolve this question definitively, providing clear confirmation or contradiction of the current market view.
- ›Doris Matsui holds 96¢ pricing versus 64¢ for the second-place Mai Vang, indicating market confidence in an incumbent advantage
- ›The 24-hour trading volume on Matsui's contract ($230) is substantially higher than all others combined, suggesting active but not contested pricing
- ›Matsui's price of 96¢ requires only 4% residual probability for all five challengers combined, leaving minimal room for surprise outcomes
- ›The gap between the 96¢ leader and 64¢ second-place Mai Vang is 32 cents, indicating meaningful but not overwhelming consensus
- ›Upcoming primary election results will definitively resolve whether Matsui wins first place or any challenger emerges as winner
What moved the line
- May 18Mai Vang↑17pp63→80¢ · Polymarket
- May 25Zachariah Wooden↓9pp22→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 19Zachariah Wooden↓8pp30→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Mai Vang↓8pp79→71¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Mai Vang↑7pp71→78¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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