Will Canada inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.2%
Leader sits at 86% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.3%
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
Above 2.9%
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$8
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 22, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.7%?: Above 2.7%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T2.7
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.4%?: Above 3.4%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T3.4
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.3%?: Above 3.3%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T3.3
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.2%?: Above 3.2%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T3.2
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.9%?: Above 2.9%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T2.9
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.8%?: Above 2.8%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T2.8
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T2.6
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.5%?: Above 2.5%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T2.5
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.3%?: Above 2.3%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T2.3
Will Canada inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2%
KXCACPIYOY-26JUN22-T2.2
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 93% probability that Canada's year-over-year inflation rate for April 2026 will exceed 2.3%, suggesting traders expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Canada's 2% target with low odds of deflation. The high probability reflects recent Canadian inflation trends, current monetary policy settings, and economic conditions as of early May 2026. Resolution depends on Statistics Canada releasing the official April 2026 inflation data, typically in early-to-mid May. The contract ladder shows declining confidence at higher thresholds: only 75% probability above 2.7%, indicating uncertainty about whether inflation pressures will be stronger. Key drivers include energy prices, wage growth, housing costs, and the effectiveness of recent Bank of Canada rate decisions. Traders appear to expect modest inflation above target rather than either a sharp spike or return to the 2% goal.
- ›April 2026 year-over-year CPI will be published by Statistics Canada, providing the exact figure against which all thresholds are measured
- ›Probability drops from 93% (above 2.3%) to 75% (above 2.7%), showing consensus expects inflation in the 2.3–2.7% range rather than extreme outcomes
- ›Energy prices, food costs, and core inflation components in April will directly determine whether inflation stays above 2.3% or falls below it
- ›Bank of Canada monetary policy tightness as of spring 2026 and labor market conditions shape inflation trajectory entering the April measurement period
- ›Recent month-over-month and year-over-year CPI data from prior months provides the immediate reference point for market expectations
What moved the line
- Jun 22Above 2.8%↑79pp18→97¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 2.6%↑49pp2→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 2.9%↑35pp22→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 3.3%↑27pp12→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above 2.8%↓23pp30→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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