Chungcheongbuk Province Governor Election Winner
Leader sits at 92% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shin Yong-han
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Noh Yeong-min
Spread
89pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$331
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
25 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Chungcheongbuk Province Governor Election Winner
Analysis
This represents the aggregate prediction that a specific candidate will win the Chungcheongbuk Province Governor Election. The 40% probability suggests markets view this outcome as possible but not favored, with other candidates or candidates collectively holding greater perceived likelihood. The current level reflects available polling data, recent political developments in the province, and the historical performance of similar candidates in comparable contests. The primary drivers of probability movements would be shifts in regional polling, changes in candidate field composition, or major political events affecting provincial dynamics. The election date itself, when it occurs, serves as the definitive catalyst—results will resolve all uncertainty around this particular outcome. Until then, intermediate signals like registered candidate announcements, campaign finance disclosures, and monthly tracking polls would likely shift market expectations.
- ›Aggregate probability of 40% indicates this candidate is not the consensus favorite among market participants, with remaining probability split among other contenders
- ›No recent polling data or campaign event dates are visible in the current contract snapshot, making it difficult to assess what specifically supports the current 40% level
- ›The underlying election has not been assigned a specific date in the available information, creating extended uncertainty around timing and resolution
- ›Candidate field composition and regional political dynamics in Chungcheongbuk Province are critical factors but not detailed in market data provided
- ›24-hour trading volume and contract prices suggest moderate but not intense market interest in this particular outcome
What moved the line
- May 2Shin Yong-han↑3pp92→95¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Shin Yong-han↓3pp96→93¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (92% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.