CO-03 Republican Primary Winner
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jeff Hurd
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Hope Scheppelman
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CO-03 Republican Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects the assessed likelihood that a Republican candidate will win the CO-03 congressional primary election. At 41%, the market indicates meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting no single candidate has secured dominant support among likely GOP primary voters in this Colorado district. The current level likely reflects recent polling data, fundraising totals, and endorsements from established party figures. Movements in this probability would track with new primary polling, candidate campaign developments, debate performances, or shifts in voter sentiment closer to the election. The primary election itself, scheduled for June 2026, represents the key resolution event that will determine the outcome with certainty.
- ›Primary election date in June 2026 will provide definitive outcome; current probability reflects uncertainty among multiple viable candidates
- ›Recent polling showing candidate preference distribution among likely Republican primary voters in CO-03
- ›Fundraising and cash-on-hand totals for competing candidates indicating resource advantages
- ›Endorsements from state party leadership, incumbent officials, or national Republican figures
- ›Turnout model assumptions about which voter segments participate in the Republican primary
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.