Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 84% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
John Hickenlooper
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Julie Gonzales
Spread
71pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$304
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner: J
Analysis
The Colorado Democratic Senate Primary has one candidate trading at 81% probability of winning the nomination, with a runner-up at 14%. This reflects market expectation of a decisive primary outcome. The current frontrunner's position likely reflects name recognition, early endorsements, fundraising totals, or polling advantages within the state party. Key factors that would shift this probability include upcoming candidate debates, new public polling releases, or endorsements from prominent Colorado Democrats. The primary election date would be the ultimate resolution event, determining the actual nominee. Until then, changes in candidate campaign strength, voter preference shifts measured through surveys, or organizational capacity on the ground would drive market repricing. The wide gap between the leader and runner-up suggests relatively high confidence in the outcome, though primary contests remain inherently uncertain until ballots are cast.
- ›Leader's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to runner-up, indicating relative campaign resources and sustainability
- ›Public polling from Colorado Democratic primary voters showing candidate preference trends and undecided voter share
- ›Endorsements from established Colorado Democratic figures, labor unions, or party organizations that signal momentum or institutional backing
- ›Candidate debate performance and media coverage in the weeks before the primary election
- ›Voter turnout model assumptions—whether primary electorate composition favors the frontrunner's demographic base
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (84% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.