Colorado Republican Senate Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Colorado Republican Senate Primary Winner: Mark Baisley
Colorado Republican Senate Primary Winner: Mark Baisley
0x7391df…63e7
Analysis
This 45% probability reflects the likelihood that a specific candidate wins Colorado's Republican Senate primary. The outcome depends primarily on candidate name recognition, grassroots organization, and fundraising strength within the state's Republican electorate. Recent polling data, candidate endorsements, and voter turnout in early voting phases would significantly shift expectations. The primary election date itself will serve as the defining moment that resolves this uncertainty, as actual vote totals replace speculation about voter preferences. Until then, developments like major donor commitments, high-profile endorsements from state party leaders, or significant shifts in internal campaign polling would create substantial movement in the probability estimate.
- ›Relative funding and spending levels by each candidate as of May 2026, which correlates with campaign reach and voter contact capability
- ›Published polling of Colorado Republican primary voters showing candidate name recognition and preference ordering
- ›Endorsement patterns from state party establishment, county-level GOP organizations, and prominent Republican figures
- ›Voter turnout patterns in early voting periods compared to historical baselines for Colorado Republican primaries
- ›Campaign organization metrics such as field staff hires, volunteer activation, and voter contact volume reported by campaigns
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 h ago.