Croydon Mayoral Election Winner

30-day trend

Analysis

The 36% probability reflects market expectations that a specific candidate will win the Croydon mayoral election, based on aggregated contract prices from Polymarket. This implies a roughly one-in-three chance of victory. Market participants appear to be pricing in uncertainty around candidate viability, local campaign dynamics, and voter preferences. The probability could shift upward if polling data favors the candidate or downward if rival candidates gain momentum or resources. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the actual election date, when results determine the outcome definitively. Until then, contract prices reflect traders' assessments of current information, which may be limited given the relatively modest trading volume on this specific race compared to higher-profile mayoral contests.

• ›Polymarket contract trading volume on Croydon ($1,128 in 24h volume) is substantially lower than Seoul mayoral contracts ($26,517), suggesting fewer informed traders are pricing this election
• ›The candidate's contract trades at 8¢, indicating asymmetric risk where the majority of traders believe the candidate is more likely to lose than win
• ›No recent polling data or campaign finance reports are referenced, meaning the market probability may be driven primarily by base rate assumptions about candidate quality or incumbency rather than fresh intelligence
• ›The election outcome depends on voter turnout patterns and local campaign dynamics in Croydon that may not be fully reflected in Polymarket pricing
• ›As the election date approaches, new information about candidate endorsements, campaign activity, or local issues would likely shift contract prices and implied probabilities

What moved the line

• May 3Rowenna Davis↑14pp40→54¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Rowenna Davis↑13pp54→67¢ · Polymarket
• May 2Jason Perry↑13pp31→44¢ · Polymarket
• May 2Rowenna Davis↓11pp51→40¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Jason Perry↓11pp36→25¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds