Will an earthquake of at least 6.8 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026
Leader sits at 31% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 6.8
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
At least 6.9
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$484
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
8 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will an earthquake of at least
Will an earthquake of at least 7.2 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.2
KXEARTHQUAKE-26MAY-72
Will an earthquake of at least 7.3 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.3
KXEARTHQUAKE-26MAY-73
Will an earthquake of at least 7.0 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.0
KXEARTHQUAKE-26MAY-70
Will an earthquake of at least 6.8 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 6.8
KXEARTHQUAKE-26MAY-68
Will an earthquake of at least 7.4 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.4
KXEARTHQUAKE-26MAY-74
Will an earthquake of at least 7.1 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.1
KXEARTHQUAKE-26MAY-71
Will an earthquake of at least 7.5 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.5
KXEARTHQUAKE-26MAY-75
Will an earthquake of at least 6.9 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 6.9
KXEARTHQUAKE-26MAY-69
What moved the line
- May 19At least 6.8↓27pp51→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 18At least 7.2↑17pp16→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 19At least 7.2↓14pp33→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 20At least 6.8↑14pp24→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 19At least 7.4↓13pp26→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Shenzhen Peng City vs Beijing Guoan WinnerQingdao Hainiulast 31% · 0d
- Brentford at Manchester Unitedlast 64% · 0d
- Brentford wins by over 2.5 goalslast 19% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FClast 60% · 1d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC - More Marketslast 83% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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