Ethiopia Parliamentary Election Winner

30-day trend

Analysis

This 37% probability reflects market expectations that a particular political party will secure the largest number of seats in Ethiopia's next parliamentary election. The current level suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with multiple parties viewed as competitive. The probability is likely driven by recent polling data, political coalition dynamics, and assessments of incumbent strength versus opposition momentum. The primary catalyst that would shift this probability significantly would be the actual holding of the election itself, which would provide definitive results. Until then, major changes in voter sentiment, coalition arrangements, or security conditions affecting campaign activity could move expectations materially.

• ›Current polling data and sample sizes showing support levels for the leading party and major competitors
• ›Status of pre-election coalition negotiations and whether opposition parties unite or compete separately
• ›Security situation and election administration capacity in regions where the outcome will be decided
• ›Turnout projections and demographic shifts since the previous parliamentary election
• ›Recent political events or scandals affecting public perception of the incumbent party or main opposition challengers

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds