Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026
Leader sits at 62% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 39%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
39¢
Federal Funds Rate Decision:
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$611
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
40 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jun 2026?: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0
KXFEDCOMBO-26JUN-0-T0
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026?: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0
KXFEDCOMBO-26JUN-0-0
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at its June 17, 2026 meeting with no dissenting votes among policymakers. At 56%, the market slightly favors this outcome over alternatives. The current level reflects two primary considerations: recent economic conditions and inflation trends that may or may not warrant rate adjustments, and the degree of consensus within the Fed's policy committee. The June 17 FOMC meeting itself will resolve this question, with outcomes hinging on employment data, inflation readings, and Fed communications in the weeks leading up to the decision. Market pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty remains, as the runner-up scenario of no-change-with-dissents trades at 39%.
- ›Recent Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data relative to the Fed's 2% target will influence both rate decision and voting unanimity
- ›Monthly employment reports and jobless claim trends through early June will inform policymaker assessments of labor market stability
- ›Fed officials' public statements and economic projections released before June 17 typically shift probability as they signal intended policy direction
- ›The difference between the 56% no-dissent scenario and the 39% dissent scenario suggests markets expect broad consensus but acknowledge meaningful internal debate among voting members
- ›Options on the upper bound trading at 95 cents for staying above 3.50% indicate high confidence rates remain elevated, supporting hold expectations
What moved the line
- May 3Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0↓14pp52→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0↑14pp41→55¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (62% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
Related reading
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The market has decisively priced in a 'no change' at the June FOMC meeting, while also assigning a near-100% probability to Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair. This signals a period of policy stability on the rate front but a significant leadership transition.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.