Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.64ㅤ?

82¢

Bid/Ask 75/83¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $12·Closes May 12, 2026·24d remaining

KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.64

7-day price7 snapshots · 9 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $12 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 82¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 8¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (498% for Yes, 4484% for No) signal severe mispricing typical of thin markets, with the No side offering nonsensical returns that suggest minimal real capital backing either outcome. With 24 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the recent 4¢ downward price movement may reflect limited order flow rather than fundamental conviction about April 2026 ground beef prices.

Resolution rules

If the United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 6.64ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.9%

IY (No) 4499.3%

Adj IY 2010%

CRI 3

Overround 2.6%

LAS 0.11

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4499.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2010%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.11	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 4:25:45 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 4:23:51 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.64 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →