Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7600 by May 29, 2026
Leader sits at 59% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 7575
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Above 7600
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$444
thin orderbook
Closes
May 30, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7
Analysis
This probability indicates that traders estimate a 59% chance the S&P 500 will reach at least 7475 at some point between now and May 29, 2026—roughly two weeks away. The market is pricing in moderate confidence that the index can gain approximately 2.5% from current levels. The probability reflects recent market momentum and volatility expectations; stronger economic data or corporate earnings could push this higher, while recession concerns or geopolitical shocks could lower it. The key driver is whether the index maintains upward momentum through the resolution date, with daily market movements and any major macroeconomic announcements serving as immediate catalysts. Notably, the probability drops sharply at higher thresholds (7500+), suggesting traders see 7475 as a plausible near-term target but view anything significantly higher as less likely within this compressed timeframe.
- ›S&P 500 requires approximately 300-350 points (~2.5%) from current levels to reach 7475 by May 29
- ›Historical volatility and intraday ranges will determine whether intraday maximums reach the target, even if closing prices don't sustain those levels
- ›Probability declines steeply for 7500 and higher levels (13% and below), indicating low conviction above 7475
- ›No major economic data releases, Fed decisions, or earnings-season events appear scheduled as direct catalysts in this 15-day window
- ›Market liquidity and volume patterns in May typically show lower activity heading into the Memorial Day period, potentially affecting price discovery
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (59% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In markets
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.