Will the price of WTI oil be above 80 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST

30-day trend

Analysis

This market indicates an estimated 93% probability that West Texas Intermediate crude oil will trade above $75 per barrel on December 31, 2026. The high probability reflects expectations that oil prices will remain at or above this relatively modest threshold over the next seven months. Current market pricing suggests traders view a price floor around $75 as highly likely, though there's meaningful uncertainty about higher price levels—contracts for $100+ oil trade at only 43 cents. The probability depends on global supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical developments affecting production, macroeconomic growth expectations, and seasonal patterns heading into year-end. Key uncertainties include OPEC+ production decisions, potential supply disruptions, and whether economic weakness or recession materializes, which would pressure prices downward. The contract ultimately resolves based on the WTI spot price at a specific time on December 31, 2026, making it sensitive to year-end trading patterns and any late-breaking developments affecting energy markets.

• ›OPEC+ compliance with production quotas through 2026; announced cuts or production increases would directly affect supply and upward or downward price pressure
• ›Global macroeconomic data and recession indicators between now and December; weaker growth typically reduces oil demand and prices below $75
• ›Geopolitical events affecting major producing regions (Middle East, Russia, Africa); supply disruptions historically drive prices higher within weeks
• ›US dollar strength and interest rate expectations; a weaker dollar typically supports higher oil prices while a stronger dollar pressures them downward
• ›Seasonal demand patterns and inventory levels in Q4 2026; winter heating demand typically supports prices but excess supply can overwhelm seasonal effects

What moved the line

• Aug 1290 or above↓11pp23→12¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 1390 or above↑10pp12→22¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 1380 or above↑7pp41→48¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 11110 or above↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 10115 or above↑4pp8→12¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds