Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
24 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner: Jim Carlin
Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner: Jim Carlin
0xfbea7a…b86e
Analysis
This 37% probability reflects market expectations for the eventual Republican Senate primary winner in Iowa, meaning traders believe there is roughly a one-in-three chance this contract resolves to yes. Iowa's 2026 Senate race will determine which Republican candidate advances to face the general election winner. The primary winner's identity depends on candidate field composition, campaign spending, endorsements, and voter preferences across the state's diverse regions. Key uncertainties include whether establishment-backed candidates consolidate support or a grassroots alternative emerges, and how well-funded campaigns perform in early organizing and advertising. The Iowa caucuses or primary election date will be the definitive resolution event, as this is when voters directly select the Republican nominee. Until that election occurs, the market price reflects accumulated expectations based on candidate viability, polling data if available, and historical patterns of Iowa Republican primary behavior.
- ›Declared candidate field size and composition—more viable candidates typically dilutes any single candidate's win probability
- ›Endorsement patterns from Iowa Republican leadership and national party figures, which historically influence Iowa primary voters
- ›Campaign funding and spending disparities between major candidates, affecting voter reach and persuasion capacity
- ›Polling performance in Iowa-specific surveys as the primary date approaches, showing actual voter preference trends
- ›Timing and sequence of candidate entry or withdrawal, which can reshape field dynamics and shift vote consolidation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 h ago.