Who will win IPL Orange Cap
Leader sits at 25% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Sai Sudharsan
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Vaibhav Sooryavanshi
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$589
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 22, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win IPL Orange Cap
Who will win IPL Orange Cap?: Sai Sudharsan
KXIPLORANGECAP-26-SSUD
Who will win IPL Orange Cap?: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi
KXIPLORANGECAP-26-VSOO
Who will win IPL Orange Cap?: Shubman Gill
KXIPLORANGECAP-26-SGIL
Who will win IPL Orange Cap?: Virat Kohli
KXIPLORANGECAP-26-VKOH
Analysis
The Orange Cap recognizes the highest run-scorer across an IPL season. Vaibhav Sooryavanshi is currently priced at 28% to win this award, reflecting modest confidence given the abundance of established heavy hitters in the league. The probability is driven by Sooryavanshi's recent form and playing opportunities, though established batsmen like Shubman Gill (3%) and others command significantly lower odds. The award will be determined by aggregate performance across all IPL matches in the 2026 season, with outcomes becoming clearer as more games are played and individual run tallies accumulate. Trading volume remains minimal (zero 24-hour volume), suggesting limited market activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads. Resolution depends entirely on final season statistics, making the projection increasingly reliable as the tournament progresses.
- ›Vaibhav Sooryavanshi's 28% price substantially exceeds those of established batsmen like Shubman Gill (3%), indicating market confidence in his current form relative to peers
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all four contracts suggests low liquidity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect recent matches or roster changes
- ›The Orange Cap winner typically accumulates 600+ runs over an IPL season; Sooryavanshi's eligibility, team role, and playing time directly determine his run-scoring ceiling
- ›Injury to Sooryavanshi or reduced playing time due to team strategy would mechanically lower his probability as fewer matches reduce available scoring opportunities
- ›As the season progresses, actual run totals become observable data, making the market increasingly efficient and less subject to speculation
What moved the line
- May 27Vaibhav Sooryavanshi↓38pp50→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Vaibhav Sooryavanshi↑18pp12→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Sai Sudharsan↑8pp2→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 29Sai Sudharsan↑7pp10→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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