Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Leader sits at 49% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Likud
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
Together
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$211
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 27, 2026
155 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Together
0x4e9cff…77af
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud
0xf77fa3…eee3
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar
0xd05da9…118b
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: The Democrats
0x4a48f7…70e9
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Otzma Yehudit
0x49b2c8…4f36
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for which coalition or party will win the most seats in Israel's next legislative election, with Likud currently priced slightly ahead of the Together bloc. The outcome depends primarily on voter turnout patterns, recent polling shifts, and the distribution of undecided voters across Israel's fragmented political landscape. The main driver of uncertainty is the timing and final results of the election itself—currently scheduled but subject to political developments that could trigger early dissolution of the Knesset. Secondary factors include coalition-formation dynamics after the election, as the largest bloc doesn't automatically form government. Trading volume is concentrated in the Likud and Together contracts, suggesting the market views this as essentially a two-way race, with minimal probability assigned to smaller parties.
- ›Likud is priced 8 percentage points above Together despite polling showing closer margins; this gap may reflect market assumptions about coalition mechanics or turnout
- ›Combined probability for Likud and Together exceeds 90%, indicating the market assigns negligible chance to smaller parties winning the most seats
- ›Low 24-hour trading volume on Likud (vs. Together at $63) despite higher odds suggests less active price discovery on the frontrunner
- ›No recent polling data release date is noted, leaving the contract exposed to unexpected survey results that could shift probabilities materially
- ›Election date confirmation and any political instability that might trigger early elections or delay voting are primary catalysts for resolution
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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