Will Japan balance of trade for March 2026 be above 1200B JPY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 47%, Polymarket at 18% — a 29pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
18 contracts
Polymarket
18%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
29pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
20 contracts
Top contract
6¢
$1K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 47¢ · Polymarket 18¢ · 29pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (18¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (47¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 12% of their title tokens — “Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above” vs “Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 130.0B USD?: Above 130.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T130.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 40.0B USD?: Above 40.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T40.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 30.0B USD?: Above 30.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T30.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 60.0B USD?: Above 60.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T60.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 90.0B USD?: Above 90.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T90.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 70.0B USD?: Above 70.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T70.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 50.0B USD?: Above 50.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T50.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 100.0B USD?: Above 100.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T100.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 120.0B USD?: Above 120.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T120.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 110.0B USD?: Above 110.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T110.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 10.0B USD?: Above 10.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T10.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 20.0B USD?: Above 20.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T20.0
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 80.0B USD?: Above 80.0B USD
KXCHTRADEBAL-26MAY08-T80.0
Cluster 2
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027
Cluster 3
When will Trump announce a new trade deal
When will Trump announce a new trade deal?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXNEWDEAL-JUN01
Cluster 4
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B260801
Cluster 5
Will Donald Trump visit Japan before Jan 1, 2027
Will Donald Trump visit Japan before Jan 1, 2027?: Japan
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-JAP
Cluster 6
Will Japan qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals
Will Japan qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: Japan
KXWCROUND-26SEMI-JPN
Cluster 7
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China before Jan 20, 2029
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China before Jan 20, 2029?: Before 2029
KXFTAPRC-29
What moved the line
- Apr 27Before Aug 1, 2026↓19pp44→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 3European Union↓9pp13→4¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Japan↓9pp45→36¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Before Aug 1, 2026↓8pp25→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 1European Union↑5pp10→15¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.