Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China before Jan 20, 2029?
This contract is priced at 40¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 36¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 4¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$483K
Best sibling
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs 81¢
Ticker
KXFTAPRC-29
Price history
40¢ current
+6¢Orderbook snapshot
36 / 40¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If a new free trade agreement with China has become law before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXFTAPRC-29
Event family
Tariffs & trade.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$483K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs 81¢
Current share
0%
Before 2029
kalshi · KXFTAPRC-29
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs
polymarket · 0xc451f03563e65567ee326fcaf2128915afa777cb31805c40ddae0a19cf1013f7
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30
polymarket · 0x1b3f1f2bec1c92ff851c9b02c3c8bbc320e5aac7bc371ad0f615c5521a4494e7
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30
polymarket · 0xfd1be18abbc39bdf1b16659499488e584e6c06c7b1959b425b5fb4b046d01a33
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30
polymarket · 0xfa772932032462681258298f5b3471dd5f2f5ee514b51558db05a39556d5e97f
Yes
kalshi · KXNEWTARIFFS-26MAY-JUN01
Tariff
kalshi · KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-TARI
Before Jun 1, 2026
kalshi · KXNEWDEAL-JUN01
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B260801
Tariff
kalshi · KXEARNINGSMENTIONON-26MAY04-TARI
Between 20% and 29.99%
kalshi · KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-24
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXTARIFFBILL-26JUL01
Between 50% and 60%
kalshi · KXTARIFFRATEINDIA-26JUL01-55
Between 40% and 49.99%
kalshi · KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-44
Tariff
kalshi · KXEARNINGSMENTIONSHOP-26MAY05-TARI
Between 10% and 19.99%
kalshi · KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-14
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Odds pages
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