Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 12% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Christy Davis
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Sharice Davids
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$65
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
92 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Sandy Spidel Neumann
0x7746b1…db24
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Christy Davis
0x23138f…28e8
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Patrick Schmidt
0xedd9fa…5fb2
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Anne Parelkar
0x571b1b…fe01
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Sharice Davids
0xde0722…5ee1
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Michael Soetaert
0x055f6d…8988
Analysis
This 13% probability represents the market-implied chance that a specific candidate wins the Kansas Democratic Senate primary. The lean probability reflects a competitive field where multiple candidates remain viable, with no frontrunner commanding consensus. The current price is driven by candidate fundraising totals, polling data within the state, and endorsements from established Democratic figures. The primary election date will definitively resolve this contract, eliminating uncertainty about the actual winner. Market participants are weighing factors like name recognition among Kansas Democrats, campaign organization strength, and messaging alignment with the party base in a state where Democrats face structural headwinds in the general election.
- ›Candidate fundraising disclosures and cash-on-hand compared to rivals
- ›Recent public polling of likely Kansas Democratic primary voters
- ›Endorsements from sitting Kansas Democratic officials and national party figures
- ›Voter registration trends and turnout expectations among Democratic primary electorate
- ›Campaign organization indicators, including field staff presence and voter contact operations
What moved the line
- Apr 30Anne Parelkar↓28pp31→3¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Anne Parelkar↑26pp5→31¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Patrick Schmidt↑26pp10→36¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Michael Soetaert↑23pp5→28¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Michael Soetaert↓19pp28→9¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.