Will The Progressives win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 87% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
87%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
450 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will United List win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections
Will United List win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections?: United List
KXLATVIAPARLIAMENT-26DEC31-AS
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that The Progressives party will secure the most seats in Latvia's 2026 parliamentary elections. At 28%, the odds reflect moderate uncertainty about their competitive position, though market data is sparse. The probability is influenced by recent polling trends and the fragmented nature of Latvian politics, where multiple parties compete for representation. The elections themselves, scheduled for October 2026, will definitively resolve this outcome. Key factors shaping expectations include The Progressives' current polling position relative to rivals like United List (priced at 73¢, indicating stronger market conviction), coalition dynamics that determine which party can form a government majority, and potential shifts in voter sentiment during the campaign period. Changes in economic conditions or political developments in the coming weeks could significantly alter these assessments.
- ›Current polling data showing The Progressives' support levels relative to other major parties competing in the election
- ›United List's substantially higher market probability (73¢) suggests traders assess it as the frontrunner, making The Progressives' 28% probability dependent on List's performance slipping
- ›Latvia's multi-party parliamentary system where no single party typically wins outright, requiring coalition-building after the election
- ›Campaign momentum and voter sentiment shifts between now and the October 2026 election date
- ›Fragmentation of votes among multiple competing parties, which affects whether The Progressives can consolidate enough support for plurality
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (87% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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