Will The Progressives win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
601 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will New Unity win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections
Will New Unity win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections?: New Unity
KXLATVIAPARLIAMENT-26DEC31-JV
Cluster 2
Will National Alliance win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections
Will National Alliance win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections?: National Alliance
KXLATVIAPARLIAMENT-26DEC31-NA
Cluster 3
Will The Progressives win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections
Will The Progressives win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections?: The Progressives
KXLATVIAPARLIAMENT-26DEC31-PRO
Cluster 4
Will Latvia First win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections
Will Latvia First win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections?: Latvia First
KXLATVIAPARLIAMENT-26DEC31-LPV
Analysis
This market estimates a 21% chance that The Progressives party will win the most seats in Latvia's 2026 parliamentary elections. The current probability reflects Latvia's fragmented political landscape, where multiple parties typically compete for influence. Key factors driving this estimate include The Progressives' recent polling performance, historical electoral volatility in Latvia, and the broader coalition-building dynamics that determine election outcomes. The probability will likely shift as Latvia approaches its official election date, when updated polling data becomes available and campaign momentum becomes clearer. The election itself will provide definitive resolution of this question.
- ›The Progressives' standing in recent public opinion polls relative to competing parties in Latvia
- ›Historical precedent for electoral surprises or significant polling shifts in Latvian parliamentary elections
- ›Coalition dynamics and strategic alliances formed by The Progressives and other parties heading into the vote
- ›Voter turnout patterns and demographic shifts that could affect which parties mobilize their base most effectively
- ›Major policy events or political developments in Latvia that could reshape voter preferences in the weeks before the election
What moved the line
- May 6New Unity↑3pp31→34¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
California Billionaire Wealth Tax Ballot Measure Surges +23¢ — Now 93¢ to Appear
The Polymarket contract for whether a one-time billionaire tax appears on the California 2026 ballot jumped an extraordinary +23¢ to 93¢ today, while the separate 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢. This suggests the measure has cleared a major legal or signature-gathering threshold.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.