Will Hannah Green win the The Chevron Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 36%, Polymarket at 94% — a 58pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
17 contracts
Polymarket
94%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
58pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
18 contracts
Top contract
4¢
$5K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 36¢ · Polymarket 94¢ · 58pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (36¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (94¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-11
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 2 games this season?: 2+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-2
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 6 games this season?: 6+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-6
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-9
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 1 games this season?: 1+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-1
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 4 games this season?: 4+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-4
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-8
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-10
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 3 games this season?: 3+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-3
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-5
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 7 games this season?: 7+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27GB-7
Cluster 2
Will Green Bay win
Cluster 3
Will Green Party win
Cluster 4
Will Hannah Einbinder win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Hannah Einbinder win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Hannah Einbinder
KXEMMYCSACTR-26SEP14-HAN
Cluster 5
Will Green win the next U.K. election
Will Green win the next U.K. election?: Green party
KXUKPARTY-29-GRE
What moved the line
- Apr 28Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?↓8pp88→80¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?↑8pp80→88¢ · Polymarket
- May 111+ wins↑7pp24→31¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Green Party↑5pp82→87¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 2711+ wins↑5pp16→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.