ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner

30-day trend

Analysis

This 55% probability reflects current market expectations for a specific Democratic primary outcome in Maine's second congressional district, based on aggregated trading across multiple contracts. The leading candidate holds a notable edge over the second-place contender at 32%, suggesting market participants perceive a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage. Primary outcomes typically shift based on candidate fundraising totals, polling data releases, and endorsement patterns in the weeks preceding election day. The most significant catalyst will be the primary election itself, which determines the definitive outcome. Until then, campaign developments—such as debate performance, organizational strength on the ground, or unexpected candidate withdrawals—could materially move probabilities in either direction.

• ›Current spread of 23 percentage points between the leading candidate (55%) and runner-up (32%) indicates market confidence in the leader but acknowledges meaningful uncertainty
• ›Trading volume across four separate contracts ($816–$775 per contract over 24 hours) suggests active participation but relatively modest liquidity for a U.S. primary prediction
• ›Polymarket prices cluster in the 16–80¢ range for related Democratic primary races, indicating voters across different races are being evaluated on different scales of viability
• ›The Maine-02 district's historical voting patterns and candidate name recognition will influence whether polling data or insider expectations diverge from market pricing
• ›Primary election date will serve as hard resolution point; any major campaign events or late-breaking endorsements before voting could shift the 55% baseline significantly

What moved the line

• May 6Matthew Dunlap↓10pp33→23¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Joe Baldacci↑6pp56→62¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Jordan Wood↑4pp13→17¢ · Polymarket
• May 8Jordan Wood↓4pp19→15¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Joe Baldacci↑3pp62→65¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
• Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
• Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
• What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds