Will Sam Altman be on TBPN before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Sam Altman be on TBPN before 2027
Will Sam Altman be on TBPN before 2027?: Sam Altman
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-SAM
Cluster 2
Will Mark Zuckerberg be on TBPN before 2027
Will Mark Zuckerberg be on TBPN before 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-MAR
Cluster 3
Will Satya Nadella be on TBPN before 2027
Will Satya Nadella be on TBPN before 2027?: Satya Nadella
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-SAT
Cluster 4
Will Marc Andreessen be on TBPN before 2027
Will Marc Andreessen be on TBPN before 2027?: Marc Andreessen
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-MARK
Cluster 5
Will Mark Cuban be on TBPN before 2027
Will Mark Cuban be on TBPN before 2027?: Mark Cuban
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-MARKC
Cluster 6
Will Alex Karp be on TBPN before 2027
Will Alex Karp be on TBPN before 2027?: Alex Karp
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-ALE
Cluster 7
Will Dario Amodei be on TBPN before 2027
Will Dario Amodei be on TBPN before 2027?: Dario Amodei
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-DAR
Cluster 8
Will Jamie Dimon be on TBPN before 2027
Will Jamie Dimon be on TBPN before 2027?: Jamie Dimon
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-JAM
Analysis
This market estimates a 50% probability that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman appears on The Ben Shapiro Political Narrative podcast before the end of 2026. The even odds suggest significant uncertainty about whether Altman will seek or accept such a platform appearance within the next seven months. The probability hinges on OpenAI's media strategy, any major developments around the Musk v. Altman litigation that might prompt Altman to conduct media appearances, and broader geopolitical or AI-related events that could elevate his profile or create pressure for public commentary. Related markets show investors pricing elevated uncertainty around Altman's tenure and OpenAI's trajectory, though the low trading volume on the CEO departure contract ($24) suggests limited conviction on near-term leadership changes. The resolution date approaches in approximately seven months, making this dependent on near-term scheduling and strategic communications decisions rather than long-term projections.
- ›Altman has made selective media appearances in the past; current frequency and strategy determine baseline likelihood of podcast participation
- ›The Musk litigation decision timeline could trigger increased media outreach by Altman or OpenAI before year-end 2026
- ›TBPN audience and format alignment with Altman's typical interview partners and OpenAI's communication priorities
- ›No scheduled appearance or public commitment to the podcast has been announced as of the market date
- ›The 50% probability suggests near-even odds, indicating limited historical data or clear patterns to anchor expectations
What moved the line
- May 2Alex Karp↓8pp79→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Sam Altman↓6pp71→65¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.