Will Sam Altman be on TBPN before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
101 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Sam Altman be on TBPN before 2027
Will Sam Altman be on TBPN before 2027?: Sam Altman
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-SAM
Cluster 2
Will Mark Zuckerberg be on TBPN before 2027
Will Mark Zuckerberg be on TBPN before 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-MAR
Cluster 3
Will Marc Andreessen be on TBPN before 2027
Will Marc Andreessen be on TBPN before 2027?: Marc Andreessen
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-MARK
Cluster 4
Will Mark Cuban be on TBPN before 2027
Will Mark Cuban be on TBPN before 2027?: Mark Cuban
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-MARKC
Cluster 5
Will Jamie Dimon be on TBPN before 2027
Will Jamie Dimon be on TBPN before 2027?: Jamie Dimon
KXMEDIAGUESTTBPN-27-JAM
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance Sam Altman appears as a guest on The Ben Shapiro Political Network before the end of 2026. At 30%, traders are pricing this as unlikely but plausible within the next five months. The probability is influenced by two main dynamics: Altman's media visibility and public engagement schedule, which has varied historically, and TBPN's guest selection patterns for technology and business leaders. Compared to similar tech executives in the related contracts, Altman's probability sits between mid-tier figures like Zuckerberg (32%) and lower estimates for Amodei (8%), suggesting traders view him as moderately likely relative to his peer group. The primary uncertainty resolver will be any scheduled media commitments Altman announces or TBPN's confirmed guest roster through year-end. With approximately five months remaining, the short timeframe means this reflects current trajectory rather than longer-term likelihood.
- ›Altman's historical frequency of political media appearances and publicly scheduled interviews through December 2026
- ›TBPN's demonstrated pattern of tech industry guest selection and any announced guest lineups for Q4 2026
- ›Comparative betting on Zuckerberg (32%), Cuban (40%), and Andreessen (45%) suggests market calibration around executive media accessibility
- ›No major catalyst date or announced event currently scheduled that would automatically trigger or prevent an appearance
- ›Trading volume near zero across all related contracts indicates low conviction and potential for probability shifts based on minor news
What moved the line
- Sep 18Mark Cuban↑27pp10→37¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Marc Andreessen↑25pp17→42¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Mark Zuckerberg↑12pp17→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Jamie Dimon↑8pp1→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Mark Zuckerberg↑6pp11→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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