Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 800 million items sold in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
above 740 million
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
above 760 million
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$65
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 2, 2026
97 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 760 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 760 million
KXMELI-26AUGITEMS-P760000000
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 780 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 780 million
KXMELI-26AUGITEMS-P780000000
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 840 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 840 million
KXMELI-26AUGITEMS-P840000000
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 820 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 820 million
KXMELI-26AUGITEMS-P820000000
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 800 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 800 million
KXMELI-26AUGITEMS-P800000000
Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 740 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 740 million
KXMELI-26AUGITEMS-P740000000
What moved the line
- May 21above 740 million↑61pp33→94¢ · Kalshi
- May 21above 760 million↑41pp43→84¢ · Kalshi
- May 21above 780 million↑34pp35→69¢ · Kalshi
- May 21above 800 million↑18pp24→42¢ · Kalshi
- May 21above 820 million↑16pp13→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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