Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
50%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026
Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026?: 1M+
0x89b80e…79df
Analysis
This probability reflects whether MicroStrategy will publicly announce it holds more than 1 million bitcoin by the end of 2026. MicroStrategy, a software company led by bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, has made substantial bitcoin purchases in recent years and could add more holdings depending on capital availability, bitcoin price movements, and company strategy. The current 60% probability suggests meaningful likelihood but not certainty. Key drivers include whether the company executes additional purchases (capital allocation and market conditions), the timing and scale of any announcements, and competitive positioning in corporate bitcoin holdings. Resolution hinges on official company announcements through earnings calls, press releases, or SEC filings by December 31, 2026—with the company's Q4 earnings report in early 2027 potentially being the final confirmation point, though announcements could come earlier.
- ›MicroStrategy's current announced bitcoin holdings and quarterly purchases throughout 2026
- ›Bitcoin price appreciation or depreciation relative to purchase costs, affecting acquisition speed and company ability to buy
- ›Capital allocation decisions by company leadership during market cycles and business performance
- ›Competing corporate bitcoin strategies by other large institutions affecting competitive pressure
- ›Exact definition and verification of "holding" in official company disclosures (announced holdings vs. operational holdings)
What moved the line
- May 61M+↓8pp60→52¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Surges 23¢ in One Day
The prediction that MicroStrategy will sell some of its Bitcoin holdings by December 31, 2026 shot up 23¢ to 73¢ on Polymarket, with the June 30 deadline rising 17¢ to 47¢. The sudden move likely reflects market speculation about forced liquidation or a strategic pivot. The high‑volume Bitcoin $150k contract remains at 1¢, but the $100k threshold is now at 46¢.
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Skyrockets 22¢
The Polymarket contract for 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026' surged 22¢ to 71¢, marking the largest one-day move in any crypto-related market. This suggests traders are pricing in a fundamental shift in strategy—either a forced liquidation, a regulatory mandate, or a voluntary pivot by Michael Saylor.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.