Will Marc Marquez be the Gran Premio de Espana Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$67K
19 contracts
Top contract
10¢
$52K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “What will the announcers say during” vs “Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will the announcers say during
What will the announcers say during Rangers vs Tigers Professional Baseball Game?: Grand Slam
KXMLBMENTION-26MAY02TEXDET-GRAN
What will the announcers say during Rangers vs Tigers Professional Baseball Game?: Grand Slam
KXMLBMENTION-26MAY03TEXDET-GRAN
What will the announcers say during Blue Jays vs Twins Professional Baseball Game?: Grand Slam
KXMLBMENTION-26MAY03TORMIN-GRAN
Cluster 2
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for
Cluster 3
Will Ariana Grande
Will Ariana Grande be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Ariana Grande
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-ARI
Will Ariana Grande have above 100K Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) on Luminate during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week?: Above 100K
KXPUREALBUMS-PET26AUG06-100K
Cluster 4
Will the Miami Grand Prix be postponed or canceled due to weather
Cluster 5
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Marco Rubio
KXPRESPERSON-28-MRUB
Cluster 6
Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028
Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?: Before 2028
KXSCOTTIESLAM-28
Cluster 7
Will any man other than Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner win any ATP Tennis Grand Slam in 2026
Cluster 8
Will Marc Marquez be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion
Will Marc Marquez be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?: Marc Marquez
KXMOTOGP-26-MAMA
Cluster 9
Will Madaris Grant be the Democratic nominee for OH-08
Will Madaris Grant be the Democratic nominee for OH-08?: Madaris Grant
KXOHPRIMARY-08D26-MGRA
Cluster 10
Will Fabiano Caruana win the Grand Chess Tour 2026 Finals
Will Fabiano Caruana win the Grand Chess Tour 2026 Finals?: Fabiano Caruana
KXCHESSGRANDTOUR-26-FCAR
Cluster 11
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Grand Chess Tour 2026 Finals
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Grand Chess Tour 2026 Finals?: Alireza Firouzja
KXCHESSGRANDTOUR-26-AFIR
Cluster 12
Will The Weeknd be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal'
Will The Weeknd be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal'?: The Weeknd
KXFEATURE-26PET-WEE
Cluster 13
Will Marc Andreessen announce they're leaving California
Will Marc Andreessen announce they're leaving California?: Marc Andreessen
KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-MAND
Cluster 14
Will legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development become law before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 15
Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion
Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?: Marco Bezzecchi
KXMOTOGP-26-MABE
What moved the line
- May 1Grand Slam↑31pp16→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Grand Slam↑31pp18→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Ariana Grande↓28pp43→15¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30The Weeknd↑23pp15→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Above 100K↓22pp28→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.