NE-02 Republican Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$197
1 contracts
Closes
May 12, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NE-02 Republican Primary Winner: Brinker Harding
NE-02 Republican Primary Winner: Brinker Harding
0x6e7e48…92d3
Analysis
The 96% probability indicates strong market confidence in a particular Republican candidate winning the NE-02 primary. This elevated level reflects either concentrated support for the frontrunner or relatively limited competition. The probability could shift based on late-breaking endorsements, changes in candidate spending, turnout patterns in key areas, or unexpected campaign developments. The primary election date itself would be the definitive resolution event, settling the outcome once voting concludes. Currently, the market shows high conviction around the leading candidate, though the 4% assigned to the runner-up suggests some residual uncertainty about potential late movements.
- ›Market is pricing in a clear frontrunner with substantial lead over nearest competitor, evidenced by 96% vs 4% split across the two binding contracts
- ›Trading volume and contract composition suggest limited recent price movement, indicating relatively stable market assessment rather than recent shifts in sentiment
- ›Primary election date represents the hard resolution point—outcome becomes binary and final once voting concludes
- ›Runner-up retains 4% probability, indicating market participants see non-zero risk of upset or surprise outcome despite strong frontrunner positioning
- ›Current probability reflects aggregation across multiple contracts on Polymarket, though individual contract prices may show minor variance affecting exact headline figure
What moved the line
- May 6Brinker Harding↑3pp95→98¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.