Newark Mayoral Election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18
1 contracts
Closes
May 12, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Newark Mayoral Election: Ras Baraka
Newark Mayoral Election: Ras Baraka
0xe4615b…902f
Analysis
This 97% probability reflects market confidence that a specific candidate will win Newark's mayoral election. The high level suggests either an incumbent facing weak opposition or one candidate with substantial structural advantages. Mayoral elections typically turn on local factors: incumbent approval ratings, challenger viability, voter turnout patterns, and endorsement consolidation. The main catalyst that would resolve remaining uncertainty is either a significant polling shift, an unexpected candidate entry or withdrawal, or election day itself. Currently the market is pricing in a decisive outcome rather than a competitive race, though the 3% tail represents scenarios where late-breaking developments or turnout surprises create an upset.
- ›Incumbent status and current approval ratings among Newark voters
- ›Strength and funding level of the primary opposition candidate or candidates
- ›Voter registration and likely turnout demographics in Newark for this election cycle
- ›Recent scandals, indictments, or major controversies affecting the frontrunner
- ›Timing and results of any recent local polling or straw polls
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 h ago.