Next French Presidential Election: Édouard Philippe
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
20%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12K
1 contracts
Closes
Apr 30, 2027
356 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Next French Presidential Election: Édouard Philippe
Next French Presidential Election: Édouard Philippe
0x46f2f4…5ae8
Analysis
This 22% probability reflects market expectations that Édouard Philippe will win France's next presidential election. Philippe, a former Prime Minister under Emmanuel Macron, remains a centrist figure with significant political experience. The probability would likely increase if he secures major party backing or polling shows him gaining ground against other leading candidates; it would decrease if he loses support or fails to mount an effective campaign. The outcome will primarily be determined by France's next scheduled presidential election, expected in 2027, where voters will choose between Philippe and competing candidates from the left, right, and other political movements. Current market pricing appears to reflect uncertainty about his candidacy status and electoral viability compared to other potential contenders.
- ›Philippe's current polling position relative to other named candidates in French presidential preference surveys
- ›Whether Philippe formally declares candidacy and secures backing from a major political party or coalition
- ›Recent statements or actions by Philippe indicating his electoral intentions for 2027
- ›Comparative contract prices for other French presidential candidates (Gabriel Attal at 4¢, David Lisnard at 6¢) suggesting market view of relative viability
- ›Trading volume ($14,237 in 24h volume) indicating market confidence or uncertainty in the 22¢ price discovery
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (20% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.