Will Brian Varela be the Democratic nominee for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$334
3 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
389 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Brian Varela be the Democratic nominee for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District
Will Brian Varela be the Democratic nominee for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District?: Brian Varela
KXNJ07D-26-BVAR
Cluster 2
Will Rebecca Bennett be the Democratic nominee for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District
Cluster 3
Will Michael Roth be the Democratic nominee for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District
Will Michael Roth be the Democratic nominee for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District?: Michael Roth
KXNJ07D-26-MROT
What moved the line
- May 6Brian Varela↑7pp1→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.