NJ-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 75% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Adam Hamawy
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Verlina Reynolds-Jackson
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$528
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
24 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NJ-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The 50% probability indicates that market participants view one particular candidate as having a slight edge in the NJ-12 Democratic primary race, though the outcome remains substantially uncertain. The current pricing reflects competitive primary dynamics where multiple candidates likely hold viable paths to nomination. Movement in this probability would depend primarily on campaign momentum, fundraising announcements, and polling data as primary day approaches. The primary election results will definitively resolve this market, eliminating uncertainty around the eventual Democratic nominee in this district. Market participants are monitoring candidate performance in early voting periods, local endorsement patterns, and any shifts in voter registration or turnout indicators that could signal changing dynamics in the race.
- ›The leading candidate is priced at 50%, indicating marginal frontrunner status rather than prohibitive favorite odds
- ›The runner-up at 13% suggests a compressed field with multiple viable alternatives rather than a two-person contest
- ›Trading volume of $816 in the top Polymarket contract indicates moderate but not high liquidity, potentially limiting price discovery
- ›No single candidate has achieved dominant pricing above 60%, suggesting material uncertainty about electability or voter preferences remains
- ›The multi-outcome structure with six bound contracts implies at least 3-4 candidates with measurable support and organizational capacity
What moved the line
- May 6Adam Hamawy↑20pp47→67¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Verlina Reynolds-Jackson↓8pp21→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Adam Hamawy↑4pp44→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Adam Hamawy↑4pp65→69¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Susan Altman↑3pp11→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
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- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.