NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 77% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Grace Meng
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Yan Xiong
Spread
55pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The 68% probability indicates that one particular candidate is currently favored to win the NY-06 Democratic primary, though roughly one-third of the market assigns meaningful probability to alternative outcomes. Primary outcomes depend heavily on candidate name recognition, endorsement patterns, local campaign infrastructure, and turnout dynamics in this specific district. The most significant driver of probability movement would be the primary election date itself—once voting concludes, the contract resolves based on actual results. Leading indicators like polling releases, major endorsement announcements, or campaign finance disclosures typically precede primary elections by weeks to months and can shift market sentiment substantially. Currently, the 68%-29% split suggests the front-runner holds a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage.
- ›Candidate funding levels and cash-on-hand reports prior to the primary election
- ›Endorsement patterns from local Democratic organizations, unions, or high-profile elected officials
- ›Polling data tracking (if publicly available) showing candidate name recognition and head-to-head matchups
- ›Voter turnout expectations and demographic composition of registered Democrats in NY-06
- ›Campaign infrastructure indicators including field office openings, staff hires, and volunteer mobilization timelines
What moved the line
- May 3Grace Meng↑16pp56→72¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Grace Meng↑7pp49→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Charles Park↓7pp23→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Grace Meng↑5pp72→77¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Yan Xiong↓5pp29→24¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.