NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 72% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Claire Valdez
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Antonio Reynoso
Spread
45pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This 73% probability indicates that one candidate (identified by contract address 0xc47d5386411a75a6b87c78cafd47993a42ad8b8b0df166e9722a275269449612) is favored to win the NY-07 Democratic primary, with a 26% alternative implied by the runner-up contract. The gap between the leader and the 27-cent Antonio Reynoso contract suggests the market is pricing in either a frontrunner with substantial name recognition or polling advantage in this New York district race. Primary turnout patterns, endorsements from party establishment figures, and recent polling movements would likely shift this probability. The primary election date itself—whether scheduled for June 2026 or later—represents the single largest catalyst that will resolve this market. Until voting occurs, movements in this probability will primarily reflect new polling data, campaign developments, or shifts in candidate viability.
- ›The leader commands a 47-point advantage over the runner-up (73% vs 26%), suggesting a candidate with measurable but not overwhelming lead
- ›Antonio Reynoso is separately priced at 27 cents, indicating fragmented market opinion on whether he or another candidate captures the primary
- ›The $679 24-hour volume on the NY-07 Democratic primary contract is modest compared to other active races, suggesting limited market conviction or participation
- ›Primary turnout composition—particularly the age and neighborhood demographics of who votes—will be a key variable affecting the favorite's viability
- ›Any shifts in endorsements, polling releases, or campaign momentum between now and the primary date would materially move this probability
What moved the line
- May 3Antonio Reynoso↑5pp21→26¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (72% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.