NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 94% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Hakeem Jeffries
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Vance Bostic
Spread
74pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
178 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The 95% probability indicates strong market confidence in a particular candidate winning the NY-08 Democratic primary. This reflects either a commanding polling lead, consolidated endorsements, fundraising advantage, or some combination of factors that has created clear frontrunner status. The probability could shift downward if a challenger gains unexpected momentum, if polling tightens, or if a significant event affects the frontrunner's standing. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this uncertainty, determining whether market expectations align with actual voter preferences. Until then, the market is pricing in a heavily favored outcome while acknowledging roughly 5% residual uncertainty for upset scenarios.
- ›Current frontrunner maintains substantial polling lead or fundraising advantage over nearest competitor
- ›Divisive issues or scandals affecting the leading candidate could rapidly shift market odds
- ›Consolidation of endorsements among progressive or establishment Democratic factions narrows alternative paths to nomination
- ›Candidate name recognition and voter turnout patterns in NY-08 will test whether polling translates to actual results
- ›Late-breaking organizational developments or surprise candidate entries before the election could challenge frontrunner status
What moved the line
- May 3Vance Bostic↑5pp7→12¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (94% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.