# of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections?
Leader sits at 85% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
10+
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
8-9
Spread
68pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
25 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
# of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that South Korea's opposition Democratic Party (DP) will win 10 or more seats in upcoming by-elections. The 81% confidence level suggests markets view a substantial DP victory as likely. The market pricing reflects the DP's recent polling strength and historical performance in by-elections, which often serve as referendums on the ruling party. The main factors pushing this probability upward are favorable public sentiment toward the opposition and typical mid-term electoral dynamics. Downward pressure could come from unexpected governing party momentum or voter turnout patterns favoring the ruling coalition. The probability will resolve once by-election results are officially counted and certified by South Korean election authorities. Current market volume on related contracts remains modest, suggesting limited real-money validation of these price levels.
- ›DP's recent polling position relative to the ruling PPP in national surveys
- ›Historical turnout and seat distribution patterns in South Korean by-elections over the past decade
- ›Public approval ratings for the current administration and opposition leadership
- ›Timing of the by-elections relative to major political events or policy announcements
- ›Official vote counts and seat allocations as reported by South Korea's National Election Commission
What moved the line
- May 810+↑4pp79→83¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (85% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.